Do you follow a formalized process or framework for making decisions? Probably not. Although many of us are familiar with the decision-making process of understanding the problem, identifying and evaluating alternatives, then choosing the alternative with the highest rating, we usually don’t go through all these steps. Instead, we use heuristics, rely on past results, or follow other people’s actions.

What makes a good decision maker?

Good decision makers have lots of experience. They are experts who have been in similar situations before. They know what cues to look for, can recognize patterns, and respond quickly. Their decision-making is fast and intuitive because they draw on prior analytic experience. They make what Malcolm Gladwell calls a blink decision. According to psychologist Gary Klein, it’s the novices who need to compare different alternatives in order to solve a problem.

Klein interviewed veteran firefighters to understand how they make decisions. Rather than outline all the possible alternatives, expert firefighters quickly produce a plan of action and assess whether it will work. Klein found that, over time, expert firefighters develop a mental catalog of distinct types of fires and how they should react to each of them.

What can we do to make better decisions?

Mental simulations are effective to help get past the beginner stage and build a rich knowledgebase to draw on for future decisions. To run a mental simulation, we project ourselves into the future and imagine that we have already made the decision and watch the consequences unfold with our inner eye. This model of decision making is called Recognition-primed decision (RPD).

Using mental simulations on projects

Klein recommends a premortem simulation at the beginning of a project. The project leader asks the team to look six months into the future and imagine that the project they are currently planning has failed. Everyone writes down reasons why and how they think the project derailed. Afterwards, people share their reasons for failure and discuss appropriate adjustments to the plan.

In the context of mental simulation, people are willing to share what they really think about the project. Experience shows that people are otherwise reluctant to raise issues or concerns during the planning phase. Nobody wants to appear pessimistic. Visualizing a list of potential problems helps everyone avoid the overconfidence bias that typically plagues projects in the initiation and planning phases. It also helps the team think of ways to overcome obstacles. As a bonus, people build their pattern recognition skills which helps them become better decision makers.

What else will help?

Here are some things to consider:

• When thinking about an issue or opportunity, write down your thoughts. Writing helps us focus. My motto is: „You need to write to think.“
• Before tackling a new decision, ask yourself the following questions:
  • How urgent is the decision? By when do I need to decide?
  • Should the decision be made alone or in a group?
  • Who else should be involved in making this decision?
  • How much effort should be spent on the decision?
  • Can I draw from experiences that I or someone else has had in the past?
  • What are my biases and limitations in making this decision?
• Experiment with different formats. Consider a simple list of pros and contras. Use a table format to note and evaluate alternatives.
• Start a list of people you can draw on for advice on different issues. We all need a sounding board from time to time.
• Identify relevant sources of information, data, and experience. For example, make a list of similar projects and the names of the project managers.
• When possible, let information you collect settle for a day or two before acting on it. Sometimes, the problem will be resolved in the interim.
• After you make a decision, reflect on the decision-making process you used. What was effective and what was not?

References

Breen, Bill. What’s Your Intuition? Fast Company, Vol. 38, 2000. Article on Gary Klein in Fast Company.

Gladwell, Malcolm. Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. Back Bay Books, 2007.  See especially the discussion of Klein’s work in the chapter „Paul van Riper’s Big Victory“.

Hammond, John S., Ralph L. Keeney and Howard Raiffa. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. Broadway, 2002.

Klein, Gary. Performing a Project Premortem. Harvard Business Review, Sept. 2007, pp. 18-19.

Klein, Gary. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions. MIT Press, 1999.

Klein, Gary. The Power of Intuition: How to Use Your Gut Feelings to Make Better Decisions at Work. Broadway Business, 2004.

Photo Credit: Jebulon